Donald Trump’s victory in the 2020 presidential election has highlighted the potential of prediction markets as a way to assess public opinion and gauge the likelihood of future events. Despite many polls predicting a victory for Joe Biden, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket correctly predicted Trump’s win.
These markets allow traders to bet on the outcome of events, with the price of contracts reflecting the probability of different results. This can potentially provide more accurate insights into public opinion than traditional polling methods. While there is still debate about the reliability of prediction markets, they are likely to become an increasingly important tool for understanding and predicting future events.
