Morgan Stanley analysts Monica Guerra and Daniel Kohen have analyzed the potential impact of the 2024 U.S. presidential election on the market. Their recent report points out that economic signals are mixed and investors are uncertain due to swings in consumer sentiment and persistently high prices.
Traditional market indicators cannot provide a clear prediction of the election outcome. However, Guerra and Kohen argue that while political outcomes and policy shifts may impact company profitability, business and economic cycles are more relevant to market performance. They recommend that investors focus on long-term strategies rather than reacting to election-driven market changes.
Additionally, they warn that a delay in election results could lead to increased volatility, as delayed results create a period of uncertainty and speculation, which historically has led to increased short-term market volatility.