BlockBeats news, on October 31, analysts from Moody’s Analytics found the economic variables that best predict the election results based on research and analysis of past presidential elections. Analytical models show that significantly lower mortgage rates since last year and continued declines in gas prices are improving Harris’ odds.
In addition, rising household income may also help improve Harris’ odds. According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, personal income grew by more than 5% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2024, slowing to 3.1% in the third quarter, but still above the 10-year average of 2.9%.
Justin Begley, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, said the model suggests the election is still unclear because four states – Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania – have a combined 57 electoral votes. —Considered that the outcome is unpredictable.
“Harris’s projected popular vote advantage increased by an average of 0.2 percentage points nationally, primarily due to upward revisions to our forecasts of real household income in each state,” Begley said.
He also added that the results of running the model 1,000 times showed that Harris’ probability of winning was 55.5%, which is slightly better than the odds of winning or losing. (Golden Ten)