QCP’s daily analysis suggests that market anxiety is high in stocks, treasury bonds, and cryptocurrencies ahead of the upcoming election. The U.S. dollar, cryptocurrencies, and bets on rising Treasury yields have gained traction due to Trump’s lead in prediction markets. However, a victory for Harris could reverse those gains, leading to significant market movements overnight.
The crypto options market expects Bitcoin to move by plus or minus 3.5% on election night, but traders may be underestimating post-election risks. Bitcoin spot prices fell on Monday, and spot ETFs saw massive outflows, as polls showed Harris with a slim lead. Volatility is expected, and in 2016, U.S.
futures initially plummeted and then rebounded, with the next two days becoming the most active trading days in half a year. In 2020, Joe Biden was not officially elected until four days after the election, causing trading volumes to surge to six-month highs. As voting results are announced, Bitcoin spot prices are set to see wild swings.
