Original title: “ETF funds have begun to decline, has the market cooled down?” |WTR11.18》
Original source: WTR Research Institute
This week in review
This week from November 11 to November 17, Bingtang Orange reached a high of around $93,265 and a low of close to $80,216, with a fluctuation range of about 16.27%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, a large number of chips were traded near about 86,000, which will provide certain support or pressure.
• analyze:
1. 69000-73000, about 466,700 pieces;
2. 74000-78000 about 88,700 pieces;
• The probability of not falling below 71000~74000 in the short term is 70%;
• The probability that it will not rise above 95,000~100,000 in the short term is 60%.
Important news
Economic news
1. SEC 13F documents show that asset management giant Ryder continued to increase its holdings in the seven U.S. technology giants in the third quarter, including 43.4 million shares in Apple, 7.5 million shares in Microsoft, and 12.35 million shares in Nvidia. In addition, After increasing its holdings of 2.59 million shares of Berkshire Hathaway, Ryder reported a market value of its holdings of US$4.76 trillion, compared with US$4.42 trillion last time.
2. After last week’s CPI and PPI inflation indicators slightly exceeded expectations, Powell said the economy was not sending “any signal” that the Fed needed to rush to cut interest rates, allowing members to pursue further adjustments “cautiously.”
3. Fed Goolsbee: As long as inflation continues to move toward the 2% target, interest rates will be much lower than now in the next 12 to 18 months.
4. Fed Collins: Another interest rate cut in December is obviously under consideration, but he does not think it is urgent to cut interest rates.
5. The Federal Reserve appears hawkish, and traders have reduced the probability of cutting interest rates in December to 61.9%, while the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 38.1%.
6. Morgan Stanley economists predict that the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield will fall to 3.75% in mid-2025 and be slightly higher than 3.50% at the end of next year. The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 75 basis points in the first half of 2025 ( to 3.5-3.75%).
Encrypted ecological messages
1. JP Morgan analysts outline six key regulatory and market changes in the cryptocurrency industry under the Trump administration, which may reshape the U.S. cryptocurrency landscape under the Trump administration and its Congress, with several stagnant developments The former cryptocurrency bill may be approved quickly.
2. Clearer regulation may increase venture investments, mergers and acquisitions, and initial public offerings in the cryptocurrency field, and strategic BTC reserves may push up the price of BTC, but the likelihood of its adoption is low.
3. U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis plans to push a bill when the new Congress takes office next year, which requires the United States to purchase 1 million BTC, aiming to fill the strategic BTC inventory proposed by Trump without adding government characters. , that is, selling part of the Federal Reserve’s gold, the acquisition will cost about US$90 billion based on current market prices, but if the bill is passed, the amount required for the acquisition may increase.
4. Metaplanet, a Japanese listed company, announced that it will issue ordinary bonds totaling 1.75 billion yen to purchase BTC. The company currently holds 1018.17 BTC.
5. Michael Saylor, the founder of MicroStrategy, launched a poll on the
6. Decrypt reported that on November 17, CB’s ranking jumped from 26th on election day to 1st in the free finance category of the Apple iOS App Store in the United States. Robinhood and Cryptocom, among others, jumped into the top 10 in the same category.
7. CryptoQuant analyst MAC.D stated that in just 10 months, U.S. BTC spot ETF holdings increased from 629,900 BTC to 1.0545 million BTC, accounting for 5.33% of the total supply. There is a relationship between the increase in spot ETF holdings and the price. There is a strong correlation. If the United States uses BTC as a reserve asset in the future, the amount of money flowing into spot ETFs will continue to increase.
8. QCP Capital believes that the potential strength of BTC represents a systemic shift in the market in anticipation of Trump’s return to the White House. The target price of $100,000 to $120,000 may not be far away. Regarding Trump’s launch strategy The idea of maintaining BTC reserves and rotating from gold to BTC provides a strong bullish perspective that could keep BTC prices supported.
Long-term insight: used to observe our long-term situation; market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently at, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face.
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; as well as the emergence of some directions and the possibility of certain events occurring under certain conditions.
Long-term insights
• Changes in ETF reserve headcount
• Net transfer of large-amount exchange funds
• Long-term holder structure
• Changes in holdings between long-term and short-term participants
(Changes in ETF reserve levels in the figure below)
The changes in ETF trends show that the current intensity of external funds has begun to decline. New chips began to decline relatively.
(The picture below shows the net transfer of large-amount exchange funds)
The funds on the exchange show that large participants are still making relative purchases. Internal strength remains relatively strong.
(Long-term holder structure in the figure below)
The structure of long-term participants shows that the proportion of long-term participants is further declining. When the number of long-term participants in the market is too low, it will cause great risks in the market.
There is still a certain distance from the too low state at that time. The structural support is quite complete.
(The following figure shows changes in holdings of long-term participants and short-term participants)
The proportion of long-term participants is declining, while the proportion of short-term participants is relatively increasing. It is worth mentioning that when long-term participants drop significantly and short-term participants turn from rising to falling, and long-term participants cannot support more market structures before a certain amount, causing the market to further weaken Possibility of collapse.
mid-term exploration
• BTC exchange trend net head
• ETH exchange trend net head
• ETH exchange circulation proportion
• Incremental model
• Liquidity supply
• Cost structure
(The chart below shows the net head count of BTC exchange trends)
There is still a large outflow of BTC, and the market maintains a state of relative accumulation. Perhaps there is still relatively strong demand for BTC at present, with relatively large outflows, and the potential selling pressure it may face is relatively light.
(The picture below shows the trend of ETH exchange net head)
ETH currently has a relatively large inflow, and the current pattern and potential market pressure may be concentrated on the ETH side.
(The figure below shows the proportion of ETH exchange circulation)
The rate of change of ETH’s circulation ratio shows signs of slowing down slightly, and it may be that the price on the market is also hesitant. If you switch to a higher ETH circulation price, the risk preference on the market may be higher.
(Incremental model in the figure below)
The increase is still continuing to rise, and at the same time, the supply of short-term participants is still in an upward channel. Maybe the market is still judging it as an incremental market.
(Liquidity supply in the figure below)
The liquidity supply on the market has increased again, and there may still be a certain degree of enthusiasm among participants.
Liquidity supply can improve the efficiency of exchanging chips on the market.
(Cost structure in the picture below)
From the perspective of cost structure, the market is in an incremental stage and the overall market is expanding.
The stock limit has increased from 73,500 to about 90,000 today, and the market is more capable of accommodating profits.
At the same time, the short-term cost is currently around 70,000, and the price to achieve short-term Alpha income is around 88,000.
The current increase is distorting the market structure, causing the cost structure to continue to change.
The position above 88000-90000 may be the high level that we should pay careful attention to at the moment.
short term observation
• Derivatives risk coefficient
• Option intention transaction ratio
• Derivatives trading volume
• Option Implied Volatility
• Profit and loss transfer volume
• New and active addresses
• Bingtang Orange Exchange Net Head
• Auntie Exchange Net Head
• High weight selling pressure
• Global purchasing power status
• Net head of stablecoin exchanges
• Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives rating: The risk coefficient is in the red zone, and derivatives risks are increasing.
(Derivatives risk coefficient in the figure below)
Judging from the liquidation volume, the shock after the market hit its high point did not consume too many bulls’ long intentions. But potential liquidation risks are increasing.
(Option intention transaction ratio in the figure below)
The ratio of put options is high and trading volume is low.
(Derivatives trading volume in the figure below)
Derivatives falling back to lows means the next wave of volatility may not be far away.
(Implied volatility of options in the chart below)
Option implied volatility does not change much.
Emotional state rating: Greedy
(Profit and loss transfer volume in the figure below)
The positive attributes of the market are at a new high this year, but the positive sentiment has declined slightly since the market reached its high point. However, while the decline occurred, the market did not fall rapidly, which confirms that there is still a lot of buying in the short term.
(New addresses and active addresses are added in the picture below)
New and active addresses are at an extremely high level.
Spot and selling pressure structure ratings: BTC and ETH diverge, BTC outflows accumulate, and ETH inflows accumulate.
(The picture below shows the net head of Bingtang Orange Exchange)
BTC outflows accumulate.
(Figure E below shows the net head count of the Pacific Exchange)
ETH inflows accumulate.
(High weight selling pressure in the picture below)
The selling by some long-term holders has eased.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has rebounded significantly, and stable ratio purchasing power has rebounded significantly.
(The picture below shows the status of global purchasing power)
Global purchasing power is steadily recovering.
(The figure below shows the net number of USDT exchanges)
Stablecoin purchasing power has rebounded significantly.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 85,000; there is a willingness to sell at 95,000.
(Coinbase off-chain data in the picture below)
There is a willingness to buy at prices near 80,000 and 85,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices near 95,000~98,000.
(Binance off-chain data in the picture below)
There is a willingness to buy at prices near 74000~80000 and 84000~88000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices near 92000~95000.
(Bitfinex off-chain data in the picture below)
There is a willingness to buy at prices near 84,000 and 75,000;
This week’s summary
Message summary:
1. From a historical review, the general market situation in the fourth quarter will be better, especially in the post-halving period, which feels like a return to the end of 2020.
2. Amid the market tone prospects of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, falling U.S. bond yields, and rising U.S. stock markets, it is expected that interest rate cuts can continue until the middle of next year.
3. That is to say, the market ideally can continue until the middle of next year.
Long-term insights on the chain:
1. ETF funding enthusiasm begins to decline initially;
2. Large amounts of net transfers from exchanges are still outflowing, and whales are still willing to buy;
3. The proportion of long-term participants is declining;
4. Short-term players are taking over chips.
• Market setting the tone: External funding seems to be showing some signs of declining, and internal purchases are still strong.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
1. The demand for BTC is still large and the potential selling pressure is low;
2. ETH has accumulated a small amount of potential selling pressure and may be more volatile;
3. The market situation is still swinging and is currently in the medium-risk stage (between high and low);
4. There is still an increase in the market;
5. Liquidity supply is still rising;
6. Prices above 88,000-90,000 require caution.
• Market setting the tone:
Growth, risk
The market is still growing and is in a medium-risk stage. From a response perspective, prices above 88,000-90,000 need to be treated with caution.
Short-term observations on the chain:
1. The risk coefficient is in the red area, and derivatives risks increase.
2. The number of new active addresses is at an extremely high level, and the market is very active.
3. Market sentiment state rating: Greed.
4. The exchange’s overall net trading position is divided, and the selling pressure on ETH is relatively high.
5. Global purchasing power has rebounded significantly, and stable ratio purchasing power has rebounded significantly.
6. Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at 85,000 and a willingness to sell at 95,000.
7. The probability of not falling below 71,000~74,000 in the short term is 70%; the probability of not falling below 95,000~100,000 in the short term is 60%.
• Market setting the tone:
In the short term, BTC is still at a strong low, and the selling pressure on ETH will continue to affect the exchange rate.
The market is brewing short-term fluctuations, and there may be a small retracement to liquidate derivatives. However, the market’s positive sentiment is still high and the probability of a sharp drop is very low.
Risk reminder: The above are market discussions and explorations, and do not have any directional opinions on investment; please be careful to view and prevent market black swan risks.
This article is from a submission and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.