Fudan University’s Complex Decision Analysis Center recently released a prediction of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with a computer simulation based on the ABM technology. The results show that Trump has a 60% chance of winning the presidency again. The prediction process involves three steps: (1) Simulation prediction of ABM for vote share distribution and electoral college vote distribution of 8 key states (limited by budget constraints); (2) Monte Carlo simulation of 1 million times, obtaining the tracking poll prediction results of the remaining 42 states and Washington, DC, and the electoral college vote attribution; (3) Summarize the two results to obtain the overall election prediction results for the United States in 2024.
The specific prediction results show that Trump will win Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin, while Harris will win Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina.
