Trump’s Election Odds and Bitcoin’s Price Surge: What’s the Connection?

The price of Bitcoin spiked to over $67,000 recently, and industry experts attribute the surge, approximately 10% increase, to soaring odds of former US President, Donald Trump, winning the upcoming elections. Trump is seen as having a more favorable outlook when it comes to crypto and blockchain than his competitor, Kamala Harris.

Crypto Investors’ interest in Bitcoin could be growing with Trump’s growing popularity. A decentralized prediction market, Polymarket, reveals Trump’s recent probability of winning was 60.2%, whilst Harris lingered behind at 39.8%. Many believe that although Bitcoin is experiencing volatility and rising in price, it should be noted that gold has also attained a new peak at $2680.

Crypto entrepreneur, Thomas Fahrer suggests that Bitcoin’s price would rise by $1,000 for every 1% increase in Trumps probability of winning the election, raising speculation of Bitcoin’s coin continuing its uptrend if this trend persists. Regarding market sentiment, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which detects investor emotions has moved from ‘fear’ to ‘neutral’ to ‘greed’ when Trump’s leads increased.

The index signal is currently at 73 marking a sense of ‘Greed’. Simultaneously, early Bitcoin dormant whales have seen a recent spike of inactivity. Recently, an unidentified Bitcoin whale, who had been dormant since 2009, moved half a million dollars in BTC to exchange Kraken. Earlier last month, another dormant 10-year-old account moved $610K from BTC to Kraken.

In addition, Arkham Intelligence tracked another whale in September who mined their BTC two months after the blockchain started. This dormant holders cashing out as bitcoin’s price rises trends has raised some attention. While Bitcoin’s price has gained roughly 7.45% over the previous week, the cryptocurrency reached a price level of 67K that hasn’t been seen for a while, indicating the trend of unidentified dormant whale activity.

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