According to the latest betting market data, former President Donald Trump has pulled slightly ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris for the 2024 presidential election, with Polymarket showing him leading 53.7% to 45.6%. This marks the first time Trump has taken the lead since Harris was nominated by the Democratic party. Over $1.4 billion has been wagered on the outcome of the race on Polymarket alone, with aggregated odds from various platforms also favoring Trump to win with a projected 281-257 electoral college lead. This has sparked debate over the predictive power of betting markets, especially after Tesla CEO Elon Musk endorsed Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania, highlighting the accuracy of prediction markets compared to traditional polls.
US courts recently ruled in favor of prediction markets, legalizing betting on major political events like presidential elections. While many believe betting markets provide an accurate reflection of current voter sentiment, political analysts caution against over-reliance on them as Election Day nears due to potential last-minute shifts. Additionally, market analysts predict that Bitcoin could experience significant price fluctuations depending on the outcome of the election, with prices potentially surging to $80,000 to $90,000 if Trump wins due to his support for digital assets and plans to strengthen the US crypto industry. On the other hand, a Harris victory could result in Bitcoin trading between $30,000 and $40,000. Overall, the crypto industry anticipates a more favorable regulatory environment under a Trump administration, which could further boost Bitcoin’s value as a hedge against inflation and market instability.
