Polymarket data as of November 1 revealed that Trump’s probability of winning the election had decreased to 62% from a previous high of 67%. This shift in odds may be attributed to traders hedging their positions by betting on a Harris victory, following reports of potential voting irregularities involving Trump.
Researchers highlighted a potential arbitrage opportunity for users with access to both Robinhood Securities and Polymarket. By betting on Trump’s victory on Robinhood and Harris on Polymarket, users can guarantee a profit regardless of the election outcome due to the differing odds on the two platforms, with Harris’ winning rate being higher on Robinhood Securities than on Polymarket.
