As the U.S. presidential election approaches, prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are allowing people to bet on the outcome. Despite the growing popularity of these platforms, determining the election winner won’t be simple. Polymarket uses a consensus of media publications for resolution, with the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC News all needing to call the race for the same candidate.
Kalshi bases the winner on the party whose candidate gets inaugurated, while Robinhood’s election prediction market is tied to contracts offered by ForecastEx. The resolution of these platforms could be delayed due to potential disputes over the election results, as some still question the legitimacy of the 2020 election.
