Original title: “After 6 months of tragic shocks, what are the real heavyweight participants doing? ｜WTR 9.09”
Original source: WTR Research Institute
Weekly Review
This week, from September 2 to September 9, the highest price of Sugar Orange was around $59,809 and the lowest price was close to $52,550, with a fluctuation range of about 6.97%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chip transactions around 56,000, which will provide certain support or pressure.
• analyze:
1. 59000-63000, about 1.44 million pieces;
2. 64000-68000, about 930,000 pieces;
• The probability of not falling below 49,000-53,000 in the short term is 70%;
• The probability that the price will not break through 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 92%.
Important news
Economic News
1. On September 9, CICC’s research report pointed out that the decline in the U.S. unemployment rate in August reflected a reversal of temporary unemployment, which was in line with expectations; the U.S. economy is still expected to achieve a soft landing, but the Federal Reserve must also take action.
2. According to CNBC, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said that the U.S. economy is in good shape and the colder employment data in recent months indicates that the economy is in a soft landing rather than a recession.
3. Fed Governor Waller said that the time has come to start a series of rate cuts this month. “If the data supports continued rate cuts, then I think continued rate cuts are appropriate. If the data shows that a larger rate cut is needed, then I will also support it.”
4. The number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in August was lower than expected. Waller, one of the most influential officials of the Federal Reserve, said that it is crucial to start cutting interest rates in September and that he is open to the intensity and speed of the rate cut. The “New Federal Reserve News Agency” interpreted Waller’s speech and said that he tends to hold the initial rate cut of 25 basis points.
5. After data showed that U.S. job growth in August was lower than expected, economists at Bank of America expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the next five interest rate meetings. This means that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times before the end of this year, one more than the two cuts previously predicted by Bank of America.
Encrypted ecological news
1. QCP: Institutions may believe that the market has bottomed out and increase bullish bets in December and March next year;
2. On September 9, broker Bernstein said in a research report on Monday that if Trump wins the US election in November, Bitcoin is expected to hit a new high later this year, and the price may reach $90,000 by the fourth quarter.
3. Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor, a financial consulting publication, wrote on X: “This year’s Bitcoin price structure is beginning to look strikingly similar to that of 2019. Bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase, and interestingly, just like in 2019, this consolidation has lasted for 175 days (so far).
4. A team of analysts led by Kenneth Worthington at JPMorgan Chase (JPM) said, “Overall, we still believe that the crypto ecosystem lacks major catalysts, so we expect crypto tokens and asset prices to become more sensitive to macro factors.”
5. According to a report by blockchain analysis provider Chainaanalysis, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) is taking the lead in developing financial infrastructure that will enable the country to use cryptocurrencies for international trade and circumvent Western sanctions.
6. Vitalik stated in the Reddit sub-forum that the current budget strategy of the Ethereum Foundation (EF) is to spend 15% of the remaining funds each year, which means that the foundation will continue to operate forever, but as a part of the ecosystem it will become smaller and smaller over time.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions
Long-term insights
• Position structure of long-term participants
• Net addition and destruction of chips
• High quality selling pressure
• ETH address profitability
(The following figure shows the long-term participants’ holding structure)
The chip accumulation of long-term participants was abnormally rapid, far surpassing the chip re-accumulation scene in 2019 at that time.
From this point of view, long-term participants are still relatively firm in the buying stage and relatively united.
(The following figure shows the net increase and destruction of chips)
From the chart of chips added to destroyed, gold is a net addition. At present, the net increase in chips has increased significantly.
(The picture below shows high-quality selling pressure)
High-quality selling pressure is still in a relatively low selling pressure area.
This shows that at this stage, no heavyweight participants are involved in further selling.
(The following figure shows the profit level of ETH addresses)
What’s interesting is that judging from ETH’s profitable addresses, ETH’s profit level is close to a bear market and is in a very sluggish state.
ETH performed very badly in this round.
Mid-term exploration
• ETH exchange circulation ratio
• Balance of OTC related addresses
• Positive network sentiment
• Liquidity Supply
• Whale comprehensive scoring model
(The figure below shows the percentage of ETH circulating on exchanges)
ETH’s current circulation is better and accounts for a higher proportion. This usually indicates that the market has a higher risk appetite and the overall stability may still be insufficient. The market may gradually stabilize when the circulation ratio of ETH is low.
(Balance of OTC related addresses in the figure below)
The data represents the cumulative balance of cryptocurrencies stored in addresses associated with over-the-counter (OTC) counters. When the demand for OTC suddenly increases, it is possible that the OTC merchants on the exchange will increase their storage of BTC, which in turn promotes the shortage of demand on the exchange.
Usually, when the data rises, it may indicate demand for BTC from some users, which can be judged as a positive signal. It is currently falling to a lower point.
(The following figure shows the positive sentiment of the network)
The online sentiment in the venue is still declining, and the time for recovery may be slightly longer.
(Liquidity supply in the figure below)
Under conditions of declining liquidity, the overall trading enthusiasm in the market will also decline, which may cause the market to struggle.
(The following figure shows the comprehensive scoring model of the giant whale)
Judging from the current situation, whales still have a high demand, and the main support force in the market may be whales. At the same time, under the current conditions, there may be an urgent need for whales to unwind their positions or rebound.
Short-term observation
• Derivatives risk factor
• Option intention to trade ratio
• Derivatives trading volume
• Option implied volatility
• Profit and loss transfer volume
• New addresses and active addresses
• Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange
• Net position of the Auntie Exchange
• High-weight selling pressure
• Global purchasing power status
• Stablecoin exchange net positions
• Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives rating: The risk factor has entered the neutral zone and the risk is moderate.
(The following figure shows the derivative risk factor)
The market has been volatile recently, and derivatives have a lower priority in the market. Judging from the risk factor alone, the market does not have much directional direction.
(The following figure shows the option intention transaction ratio)
Options trading volume and the proportion of put options have both increased significantly.
(The figure below shows the derivatives trading volume)
Derivatives trading volume is at the bottom area.
(The figure below shows the implied volatility of options)
Implied volatility has increased slightly.
Emotional state rating: Neutral to negative
(The profit and loss transfer amount in the figure below)
The positive sentiment (blue line) of the market is at a low level, and the panic sentiment (orange line) has increased slightly this week, but has now fallen. In general, the market is not as panicked as shown in social media opinions. On the contrary, most of the chips in the loss situation are relatively diamond hands. In other words, there is no large-scale panic selling at present.
(Newly added addresses and active addresses are shown in the figure below)
New and active addresses are at low levels.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC has a small amount of inflow accumulation, and ETH has a medium amount of inflow accumulation.
(The following figure shows the net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange)
A small amount of BTC flows in, and the previously flowing in chips have not been fully digested.
(Figure E below shows the net position of the Tai Exchange)
ETH moderate inflows are accumulating.
(The following figure shows high-weight selling pressure)
There is no high-weight selling pressure at present.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power is in a state of loss, and stablecoin purchasing power is being lost in large quantities.
(The following figure shows the global purchasing power status)
America is still losing purchasing power.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDC exchanges)
USDC exchange net positions have been drained significantly.
Off-chain transaction data rating: At 50,000, there is a willingness to buy; at 65,000, there is a willingness to sell.
(The following figure shows Coinbase off-chain data)
There is a willingness to buy at a price around 50,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 65,000 and 70,000.
(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)
There is a willingness to buy at a price around 50,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 65,000 and 70,000.
(Bitfinex off-chain data below)
There is a willingness to buy at a price around 45,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 67,000.
This week’s summary:
Summary of news:
1. The market is experiencing the US economic soft landing for the first time, which is in progress. At the same time, it is breeding and emitting doubts from different angles.
2. At the same time, market participants are also in an extremely sensitive situation, and any disturbance is enough to cause an uproar.
3. When substantial good news is approaching, the market does not react, which is often caused by excessive pessimism.
4. Waiting for the market to cut interest rates. There are not many mainstream narratives in the current crypto market, and it may be more sensitive to the macro economy.
5. After the interest rate cut, part of the US$6 trillion+ in funds will flow back to the capital market and risk market.
On-chain long-term insights:
1. Long-term participants increased their holdings on the chain very quickly, without any hesitation;
2. From the perspective of the addition and destruction of chips, we are currently in the stage of adding a large number of chips;
3. High-quality selling pressure is still in a low range, proving that there is not much selling of heavyweight players;
4. Judging from the profit level of ETH addresses, it has returned to the situation of the previous bear market.
• Market setting tone:
Although the market has experienced brutal shocks in the past six months, long-term participants have not wavered at all. Currently, heavyweight participants have no intention of selling, and the market may slowly stabilize.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
1. ETH accounts for a high proportion, and market stability may need to be restored;
2. OTC demand is low;
3. The online sentiment needs to be repaired;
4. Liquidity is currently in a relatively scarce state;
5. The whales may have a need to unwind their positions at the moment.
• Market setting tone:
Repair, Wander
The market is approaching the edge of the decline limit, and there may be a period of lingering and repair. The rebound force may be concentrated in the demand for whales to unwind.
On-chain short-term observations:
1. The risk factor enters the neutral zone and the risk is moderate.
2. The number of newly added active addresses is relatively low.
3. Market sentiment rating: neutral to negative.
4. The overall net position of exchanges shows a small amount of BTC inflow accumulation and a medium amount of ETH inflow accumulation.
5. Global purchasing power is in a state of loss, and the purchasing power of stablecoins is being lost in large quantities.
6. Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at 50,000 and a willingness to sell at 65,000.
7. The probability that the price will not fall below 49,000-53,000 in the short term is 70%; the probability that the price will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 92%.
• Market setting tone:
There are two aspects to consider at present. First, the market is not currently experiencing a huge panic sell-off. Second, purchasing power and positive sentiment are still being lost, and the market may continue to fluctuate or plunge downward. Overall, September is more dependent on news stimulation in the short term.
Risk warning: The above are all market discussions and explorations and do not provide any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.
This article is contributed by a contributor and does not necessarily represent the views of BlockBeats.
