The 2024 U.S. presidential race has seen a significant increase in betting, with Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction platform, recording its highest open interest on Election Day. The total open interest reached $463 million, representing the value of positions held on the platform. This figure is a 40% increase from the previous week’s $329 million.
A large portion of the platform’s activity has focused on the choice between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Over $249 million was bet on the U.S. presidential election’s winner as of Election Day, a 50% increase from the previous week’s $163 million. However, whether Trump’s 62% odds of winning would be accurate is uncertain, as millions of ballots remain to be cast and tallied.
Polymarket and other prediction platforms have increased in popularity, with Polymarket launching in 2020 and experiencing its most defining moment on Election Day. Statisticians, such as Polymarket advisor Nate Silver, have called the outcome of the election a coin toss. Polymarket’s founder and CEO, Shayne Coplan, views the platform as a new format for assessing current events.
While some may use Polymarket’s app as a political gauge moving forward, open interest may be a different story. During the 2020 U.S. presidential election, Polymarket’s open interest continued climbing until Joe Biden was inaugurated, and then it collapsed to $15 million from $33 million.