The outcome of the 2024 US election could significantly impact the crypto industry, as the incoming president and Congress may pass legislation that targets cryptocurrencies and affect financial markets more broadly. Current polling data and implied odds from prediction markets such as Polymarket indicate a highly competitive election.
As of October 15, these data suggest that Republican control of the Senate is more likely. The change in Senate control is highly relevant to cryptocurrencies as the Senate plays a role in confirming presidential appointees to key regulatory agencies such as the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
At the voter level, data shows that cryptocurrency is a bipartisan issue, with Democrats holding slightly higher Bitcoin holding rates than Republicans. The Harris Poll conducted a national survey and found that about half of US voters were more likely to vote for a candidate who was more interested in cryptocurrency education and information.
