On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor released the latest personal consumption expenditure report. The annual core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for September was 2.7%, slightly above the expected 2.6%. The annual PCE price index in September was 2.1%, the lowest since the beginning of 2021, and slightly above the Fed’s 2% target.
As data got released, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond (TNX) rose to 4.33%, and financial markets fell. By the end of the trading day, all three major U.S. indexes declined, with S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq closing down 1.86%, 0.90%, and 2.76% respectively.
BitTweet data showed that Bitcoin fell below the $72,000 support level near midday and dipped below $70,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $70,452, a 24-hour drop of nearly 3%.
Altcoins generally fell, with SOL below $170 and BNB below $580, down over 3%. The current overall market value of cryptocurrencies is $2.34 trillion, and Bitcoin’s market share is 59%.
Though the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s (CME) FedWatch tool suggests the market expects a rate cut by 25 basis points at the last two FOMC meetings in 2024, investors remain cautious ahead of the U.S. presidential election.
According to data from the crypto betting website Polymarket, Trump’s chances of winning dropped to 63% from 67% two days ago, while Democratic candidate Kamala Harris’s probability of winning increased from 33% to 36%.
Trump Media Technology Group (DJT) shares fell 34% in the past three days, after rising 352% last month. Brian Rudick, director of research at cryptocurrency trading company GSR, said the correlation between Trump’s election victory odds and Bitcoin prices is only 25-35%, but could increase as Election Day approaches.
Judging from Bitcoin’s overall performance this month, it fell to $58,855 on October 10 but started a rebound, reaching a position close to historical highs. The current 30-day increase is approximately 16.08%. Market analyst Nagato noted that if Bitcoin closes below $71,400 this month, it would signify “failure.”
TradingView analyst TradingShot pointed out that if Bitcoin does not fall by $7,000 in the next few hours, it will end the month in the green for a second consecutive time since March. Analysts said a seven-month consolidation period is not unfamiliar to Bitcoin since during a bull market, it’s common to have an accumulation phase where the monthly line is not green for multiple consecutive months.
TradingShot emphasized that out of the current bull market, there have been three such stages, and once the market closes in the green for two consecutive months, a rebound occurs. The 2019-2021 bull market had three such consecutive green monthly lines and a clear accumulation phase, while the 2015-2018 bull market experienced continuous upticks. It is evident from the multi-year chart that when the market closes in the green monthly line for two months in a row, it is a good buy signal.
