Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Resignation Odds Spark Debate on Polymarket

The fate of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has become a topic of interest on Polymarket, a platform where users can bet on the outcome of various events. Following reports from two of Canada’s largest newspapers, The Toronto Star and The Globe and Mail, suggesting that Trudeau’s resignation is imminent, bettors are now debating when exactly he will announce his departure.

Resignation Contracts Gain Traction

Two contracts on Polymarket, with volumes in the low six-figures, are asking if Trudeau will resign by February or April. Another contract, created in December, inquires about the possibility of opposition parties triggering an election by spring. The sudden interest in Trudeau’s resignation comes after The Toronto Star reported that the announcement could come as early as Monday, while The Globe and Mail stated that it would happen before a national Liberal Party caucus meeting scheduled for Wednesday.

Bettors Weigh In on Resignation Timeline

Polymarket bettors appear skeptical about the possibility of an early resignation. A contract betting on Monday’s resignation has a volume of over $45,000, but only gives a 24% chance of Trudeau stepping down on that day. In contrast, a contract asking if the Prime Minister will resign by Wednesday has a 72% chance, albeit with a much smaller volume of around $10,000. A third contract, inquiring about a resignation by Friday, puts the chances at 80%.

Reuters Reports Contradictory Information

While The Toronto Star and The Globe and Mail cite sources indicating an imminent resignation, Reuters reports that Trudeau has not yet made up his mind. This conflicting information adds to the uncertainty surrounding the Prime Minister’s future.

Trudeau’s Approval Ratings and Election Prospects

According to Canadian pollster Angus Reid, Trudeau’s approval rating stands at 22%. Polling aggregators suggest that if an election were held today, Trudeau’s Liberals would suffer significant losses, winning only 46 seats, while the Conservatives would secure a majority with 225 seats.

Other Notable Bets on Polymarket

In a separate development, Polymarket bettors are giving a 3% chance that Canada will join the United States as its 51st state by July. This idea, which originated as a joke on President-elect Donald Trump’s social media accounts, has sparked interest among users.

Conclusion

The uncertainty surrounding Justin Trudeau’s resignation has sparked a lively debate on Polymarket, with bettors weighing in on the possible timeline of his departure. While some contracts suggest a high probability of resignation by the end of the week, others indicate a more skeptical outlook. As the situation unfolds, it remains to be seen whether Trudeau will indeed step down and what implications this may have for Canadian politics.

Source: Coindesk.com

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