According to BlockBeats, on September 18, Greeks.live researcher Adam posted on social media that there are (less than) three hours left before the Fed’s interest rate decision. According to futures data, there is a 60% chance of a 50 basis point cut and a 40% chance of a 25 basis point cut. All markets are focused on this, and there has not been such a fierce game on interest rate decisions for a long time.
From the perspective of cryptocurrency options data, the market divergence is also huge. The IV of ultra-short-term options is as high as 70%, and the IV of put options is significantly higher. From the distribution of option transactions, BTC $58,000 put and ETH $2,200 put transactions are the most intensive. At present, the options market is bearish on the interest rate meeting as a whole. Because the 25 basis point rate cut is less than expected, the 50 basis point rate cut indicates a deterioration in economic indicators.
