October 4, 2024 – According to the CME “Fed Watch” tool, ahead of the non-farm payrolls announcement, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November stands at 71.5%. Additionally:
- The chance of a 50 basis point cut in November is 28.5%.
- By December, the market sees:
- 45.8% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut,
- 44.0% probability of a 75 basis point cut, and
- 10.2% chance of a 100 basis point cut.
These probabilities reflect traders’ anticipation of the Fed’s next moves based on ongoing labor market data and inflation trends.
