Bitwise CIO believes Bitcoin’s traditional 4-year cycle is over

A top crypto expert suggests Bitcoin’s usual four-year cycle might be breaking down due to recent policy shifts in Washington. This could push the current bull run way beyond 2025, potentially into 2026 and further.

Is Bitcoin Breaking Free From Its Cycle?

Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, a big crypto investment firm, has been digging into this four-year cycle thing. He wrote a letter to his clients explaining that Bitcoin usually has about three really strong years, followed by a bit of a cooldown. He actually called this pattern out back in 2022, and guess what? He was right – the market bounced back in 2023 and 2024 just like he thought it would. Based on how things have gone before, 2025 should be another good year for Bitcoin. But here’s where it gets interesting: Hougan is wondering if 2026 and beyond might look different this time around.

He thinks these cycles aren’t just about Bitcoin’s built-in “halving” events (basically, when the reward for mining Bitcoin gets cut in half). He believes it’s more about what’s happening in the bigger economy. He says these market surges usually kick off with something big that grabs everyone’s attention and gets new people excited. Then, things can get a little too hyped up, leading to a market correction – like we saw with past messes like the Mt. Gox exchange collapse in 2014, or when the SEC started cracking down on ICOs back in 2018.

Washington’s Wild Card & The ETF Effect

So what’s different this time? Well, Hougan points to a couple of key things. First, he says the current cycle got a major boost back in March 2023 when Grayscale, another crypto company, won a legal battle against the SEC. Bitwise calls this cycle the “Mainstream Cycle.” This win basically paved the way for Bitcoin ETFs – you know, those things that let regular folks easily invest in Bitcoin through the stock market. When these ETFs finally launched in January 2024, it was like opening the floodgates for big institutional money to pour into Bitcoin.

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And get this – since that Grayscale ruling, Bitcoin’s price has shot up from around $22,000 to over $100,000! But that’s not all. Hougan also highlights President Trump’s recent moves on digital assets. Apparently, Trump issued some executive orders that basically say making the crypto world bigger and better is a “national priority.” The source indicated this sends a signal that regulations might become clearer and that there are even talks about a “national crypto stockpile.” This, along with a feeling that the SEC might be

Source: Bitwise Cio Believes Bitcoins Traditional 4 Year Cycle Is Over | Cryptoslate.com

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