BlockBeats news, on September 27, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes disclosed on Thursday that his market prediction success rate was 25%. He believed that he was correct only 2 out of 8 predictions in the past year. But the key, he writes in a new article, is that he remains profitable by taking advantage of macroeconomic trends over the long term.

“So the batting average is 25 percent, which is pretty bad for the average person,” Hayes admitted in a blog post, using a baseball analogy to describe the accuracy of his predictions. The cryptocurrency expert’s self-reported scorecard covers key market forecasts from November 2023 to September 2024, covering forecasts for Treasury issuance, banking crises, cryptocurrency price movements, and central bank policy.

While Hayes acknowledged his difficulties with short-term forecasts, he reiterated his belief in the so-called “volatility supercycle” thesis that underpins his long-term market outlook.

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