According to Cointelegraph, CryptoQuant analysts suggest that Bitcoin is entering a period of positive seasonality, but an increase in demand is necessary for the price of BTC to reach $100,000 in the fourth quarter. Historically, Bitcoin has performed well in October during bull cycles, especially in halving years like 2024. The market intelligence firm noted that in previous halving years—2012, 2016, and 2020—Bitcoin’s price increased by 9%, 59%, and 171%, respectively. Analysts highlighted that Bitcoin’s performance in 2024 has been similar to 2016 and 2020 up to September.CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator shows that Bitcoin remained in the BULL phase between March and August. However, the price has been trading in a BEAR phase for three weeks between August and September and now enters the last quarter positioned between the BULL and BEAR phases. In comparison, Bitcoin entered Q4 in 2020 in a clear bull phase, making this year’s entry into the last quarter relatively weak. The report also emphasizes that Bitcoin’s apparent demand has stopped declining but needs to grow faster to sustain higher prices in Q4.Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, 2020 vs. 2024. Source: CryptoQuantThe data reveals that Bitcoin’s apparent demand growth has stalled since July, oscillating between -23,000 and +69,000 BTC every month. In contrast, Bitcoin’s apparent demand grew by as much as 496,000 BTC in April when the price was around $70,000. Analysts believe that institutional demand through US-based Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is crucial for further BTC price growth. These investment products shifted from net selling of 5,000 BTC to net buying of 7,000 BTC between Sept. 2 and Sept. 30. If ETF demand continues to accelerate, it could propel prices up in the last quarter of 2024.Daily change of BTC holdings of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Source: CryptoQuantData from SoSoValue indicates that spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.8 billion in net inflows between Sept. 13 and Sept. 30, suggesting increased institutional demand for these investment products in anticipation of higher BTC prices in Q4. London-based asset manager CoinShares noted that the approval of options for certain US-based investment products likely boosted sentiment, resulting in more than $1 billion in inflows into Bitcoin investment products between Sept. 23 and Sept. 27. CryptoQuant suggests that if demand continues to grow, Bitcoin could target between $85,000 and $100,000 by the end of December. Market participants are now focusing on increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the health of the US job market, and the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate cuts in 2024 following an aggressive 50 basis point cut on Sept. 18. Total spot Bitcoin ETF netflow. Source: SoSoValue
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