In the lead-up to the US presidential election, investment firm Bernstein has published predictions about Bitcoin’s price movement depending on whether Trump or Harris wins. If Trump wins, Bitcoin is expected to hit $80-90K, whereas a Harris victory could see the price adjust to around $50K. However, Bernstein also forecasts that Bitcoin will reach $200K by the end of 2025 regardless of the election outcome.
The firm attributes this long-term growth to factors beyond political influence such as US fiscal policy and monetary expansion. Since taking office, Trump has shifted to a pro-crypto stance, launching a DeFi project called World Liberty Financial on the Ethereum network. US Bitcoin ETFs have attracted over $20B in assets since their January launch.
As for the election itself, prediction markets show Trump leading Harris 57.9% to 42.1%, with Bernstein analysts emphasizing Bitcoin’s resilience regardless of the election outcome. The success of US spot Bitcoin ETFs has created new market dynamics, opening doors for institutional investors who previously faced barriers to cryptocurrency exposure.
This has contributed to increased market stability and growth, regardless of the election outcome. State-by-state predictions show varying leads for both candidates in swing states, with Pennsylvania being an especially interesting battleground. While market corrections have been attributed to profit-taking and temporary decreases in spot Bitcoin ETF flows, analysts remain optimistic about potential year-end rallies.
The impact of the election on other cryptocurrency sectors is also being closely watched, with some observers suggesting a Harris victory could benefit Ethereum, while Bernstein analysts argue that supportive regulation benefits the entire crypto ecosystem. Overall, the upcoming US presidential election is expected to have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin’s price movement being closely linked to potential election outcomes.
However, regardless of the winner, analysts predict that Bitcoin will continue to grow in the long term, supported by factors beyond political influence.
