According to BlockBeats, on September 18, BlockBeats reporters reported on the scene that BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes gave a keynote speech on “Thoughts on Macroeconomics Current Events” on the first day of the TOKEN2049 main venue:
It was a huge mistake for the Fed to cut rates at a time when the US government is spending like crazy and spending the most money. This is compounded when inflation is above their target and real GDP has been growing above 2% for about 8 to 9 quarters in the past. So while I think a lot of people are looking forward to a rate cut and thinking that it will drive stocks and other markets higher, that is not actually the case. I think the market will collapse a few days after the rate adjustment because it will narrow the interest rate differential between the dollar and the yen.
I wanted to list some of the winners and losers in the changing interest rate environment from falling treasury rates and the interest income that can be generated by holding the safest fiat assets. Winners include ENA, ETH, ETHFI, and PENDLE, all of which I personally own a lot of, but I don’t own ONDO. Maelstrom’s (his family office) portfolio is very well suited to a falling interest rate environment.
Many people believe that Ethereum has not made any progress at all in this round. Solana has performed very strongly in the bull run of the past few months. The main argument about Ethereum is that it is an Internet bond, an Internet bond with a yield of 4%. So why should I invest in this bond when the Treasury yield is above this level? But if the Treasury yield drops rapidly, then investing in ETH becomes profitable. The gains in Ethereum will exceed the gains in the US dollar and the gains in Treasury bonds. The Fed will cut rates, the market will collapse, and then reignite the bull run.
