The Polymarket, a prediction platform based on Ethereum, has seen considerable attention and betting volumes during the recent U.S. presidential election. With a total bet volume exceeding $1.5 billion, questions have been raised regarding any potential biases towards Republican candidate Donald Trump, given his pro-crypto stance. Despite this, Bernstein analysts, Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, and Sanskar Chindalia, believe bettors prioritize probability over political biases, making manipulation challenging. They note that a diverse pool of users, including both crypto investors and non-crypto bettors, strengthens Polymarket's impartiality. Notably, vice president Kamala Harris received support from bettors when announced as the Democratic nominee and following her strong debate performance. However, following Trump's rally in Pennsylvania, supported by tech billionaire Elon Musk, bets in Trump's favor significantly increased, prompting further scrutiny of the platform's impartiality. Despite this, the analysts advise that Polymarket's deep liquidity and active betting community may merely be reflecting evolving political trends.
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