According to Odaily, the United States will release its September nonfarm payroll report on Friday, October 4, at 20:30 UTC+8. This report is significant as it is the first since the Federal Reserve opened the door to rate cuts with a 50 basis point reduction. It is also one of the two nonfarm payroll data releases before the November meeting. With inflation receding, the performance of the job market has become the Federal Reserve’s primary concern.A Reuters survey indicates that nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 140,000 in September, significantly lower than the average monthly increase of 202,000 over the past 12 months. The unemployment rate is anticipated to remain unchanged at 4.2%. Despite the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes, the U.S. economy has shown remarkable resilience, avoiding the widely predicted recession. However, the job market has gradually lost momentum. From June to August, the average monthly net increase in new jobs was only 116,000, the lowest three-month average since mid-2020.Last month, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points to a range of 4.75%-5.00%, marking the first rate cut since 2020. This move aimed to alleviate growing concerns about the health of the labor market. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated on October 1 that he does not want the job market to continue cooling. Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates again in November and December, though the extent of these cuts remains uncertain. Powell mentioned that if the economy performs as expected, there would be two more 25 basis point rate cuts this year.
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