During the 2020 US presidential election, the prediction market platform Polymarket gained significant popularity in the cryptocurrency space. Polymarket allowed users to bet on the outcome of the election, and its popularity grew due to its excellent performance in predicting the election results, as well as endorsements from well-known figures such as Trump and some other KOLs.
As the election night approached, trading volume related to the president increased on Polymarket. On November 6th, the platform experienced a temporary server crash due to an influx of users. Unlike traditional pollsters, the odds on Polymarket followed news events with extreme sensitivity and had a more accurate prediction of election outcomes.
The total transaction volume on Polymarket for the presidential election was $3,612,184,597, with $1.48 billion related to Trump’s presidency and $1.01 billion related to Harris’s presidency. During the election process, Polymarket’s prediction odds often changed significantly, with some of the most striking changes occurring on November 6th.
The odds on Trump winning the election varied throughout the day, with one point reaching 88.6%. Ultimately, the odds on Polymarket were more accurate in predicting the election results than traditional pollsters. As the election cycle concluded, the focus shifted to Polymarket’s future development, particularly after the $3.6 billion in election transactions.
One notable individual was French trader Théo, who bet $45 million on Trump and became the most profitable user on Polymarket. His significant bets attracted media attention, with some suggesting that his success contributed to the platform’s popularity. Overall, Polymarket demonstrated the potential of prediction markets in the cryptocurrency industry, proving that these markets can be more accurate than traditional pollsters when predicting election outcomes.
